Long-term capital allocation using time-based arbitrage. Precision insight into overall market, exposure, liquidity, and hedge positioning — at all times.
| Date | Stress | Score | Portfolio Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2024 | 🔴 High | 5 | -3.45% |
| Apr 24, 2024 | 🟠 Medium | 4 | -0.53% |
| Apr 23, 2024 | 🟠 Medium | 4 | -1.12% |
| Apr 22, 2024 | 🟢 Low | 2 | +2.85% |
| Apr 19, 2024 | 🟢 Low | 2 | +0.42% |
🧠 Insight: Stress levels elevated due to recent portfolio drawdowns and macro volatility spikes.
| Ticker | Thesis Drift | Market Stability | FMV Delta (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟠 META | Medium− | Medium+ | -28.9% |
| 🔴 PLTR- | Low− | Low+ | +42.7% |
| 🟠 NVDA- | Low− | Medium+ | -14.6% |
| 🟢 C | Low+ | High+ | -8.8% |
| 🟢 WFC | Low+ | High+ | +16.2% |
| 🟠 FLG | Low | Medium+ | N/A |
🧠 Insight: META remains attractively undervalued with stable drift; PLTR flagged for neutral drift but severe overvaluation risk persists; banks (C, WFC) showing resilient fundamentals and favorable market trends.
| Region / Risk | Risk Level | Insight |
|---|---|---|
| USA | 🟧 Medium | GDP growth softening; bond yields volatile; election cycle raising policy uncertainty |
| Asia (India, China, SE Asia) | 🟧 Medium | China growth weak; India retail strong; trade tensions rising |
| Europe | 🟧 Medium | German recession risk rising; political fragmentation pressure ahead of EU elections |
| Africa | 🟥 High | Geopolitical instability surging (Sudan, Sahel); growth fragile post-pandemic |
| Middle East | 🟥 High | Israel-Iran tensions escalating; oil market volatility rising |
| Russia | 🟥 High | Ukraine conflict ongoing; sanctions pressure mounting; domestic economy weakening |
| Latin America | 🟧 Medium | Inflation easing but fiscal risks and political instability persist (Argentina, Brazil) |
| War & Active Conflicts | 🟥 High | Russia-Ukraine unresolved; China-Taiwan tension flashes; MENA escalation risks |
| Terrorism Threats | 🟧 Medium | Elevated threats in MENA, India/Pakistan region; crowd cautious |
| Natural Disasters & Climate Risk | 🟧 Medium | Rising insurance costs; crowd awareness uptick on droughts, hurricanes |
🧠 Insight: Regional macro fragilities and active geopolitical flashpoints are intensifying — defensive overlays across assets exposed to conflict regions recommended. Watch Middle East, Russia, energy markets, and evolving climate insurance risks closely.
Proprietary AI trained on fundamentals, technicals, sentiment, and macro data. Learns, adapts, and predicts — turning complexity into conviction.
| Cluster | Density | Velocity Spike | Theme Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢 AI + Cloud Infrastructure (META, MSFT, NVDA) | High | ⚡ Yes | Accelerated AI datacenter buildout across Big Tech |
| 🟢 Defense + AI Spend (PLTR, Defense Sector) | Medium | ⚡ Yes | NATO and government AI defense contracts scaling |
| 🟢 Financial Stability (C, WFC, JPM) | High | No | Bank earnings resilience stabilizing sector confidence |
| 🔴 Energy Sector (XOM, Oil) | Medium | ⚡ Yes | Oil collapse risks increasingly priced into energy markets |
| 🟢 Crypto Macro (Bitcoin) | Medium | ⚡ Yes | Bitcoin resurgence tied to liquidity reflation momentum |
| 🔴 EV Competition Pressures (TSLA, Auto) | Medium | ⚡ Yes | Margin compression risks intensifying in global EV sector |
| 🟢 Cloud SaaS Expansion (MSFT, CRM) | Medium | No | Cloud SaaS spending holding resilient despite AI capex focus |
| 🟢 Retail Consumer Strength (WMT, AMZN, COST) | Medium | No | Consumer discretionary resilience beating expectations |
| 🟢 Healthcare Innovation (PFE, JNJ, UNH) | Low | ⚡ Yes | Healthcare and biotech innovation clusters gaining velocity |
| 🟢 Macro Inflation Easing | High | ⚡ Yes | Inflation expectations trending lower across crowd narratives |
🧠 Insight: Mega AI capex, defense AI, and macro liquidity narratives dominate; emerging resilience in healthcare and retail clusters.
| Event | Sector | Confidence (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 🟢 Bitcoin > $85K by Apr 25 | Crypto | 99% |
| 🟢 Apple largest company by EOY | Tech | 93% |
| 🔴 WTI oil < $50 by EOY | Energy | 91% |
| 🟢 Fed/BOE rate cuts by May | Financials | 85% |
| 🟠 S&P 500 range-bound projections | Macro | 78% |
| 🟢 ETH ETF approval by July | Crypto | 77% |
| 🔴 Tesla delivery miss Q2 | Auto | 75% |
| 🟢 Nasdaq outperform Dow Q2 | Tech | 74% |
| 🟢 Gold > $2500 by year-end | Commodities | 73% |
| 🔴 Bank of Japan Yen intervention | Macro/FX | 71% |
🧠 Insight: Bullish tilt concentrated in crypto, tech, commodities; rising macro caution around energy and FX volatility risks.
Forever long. Optionally short. Executes when the market dislocates, sizes when conviction aligns. Pure discipline meets AI conviction.
| Key Pillar | Current Position | Recommended Action |
|---|---|---|
| Population Growth | Neutral | Initiate light tactical long bias in healthcare, consumer discretionary sectors based on improving earnings surprises and RSI momentum |
| Digital Transformation | Long Tech (XXXX) | Protect upside via put spreads on META; maintain partial exposure; monitor AI datacenter capex velocity surge |
| Energy Transition | Bearish Bias | Reduce oil sector exposure; bearish crowd bias on WTI prices rising sharply |
| Wealth Expansion | Long Banks (X, XXX) | Maintain core long exposure; initiate tactical bond hedges (TLT) selectively on yield curve steepening risks |
| Real Estate | Defensive Bias | Reduce REIT exposure; mortgage rate trends weakening real estate momentum |
| Cash & Bonds | Hedge Active | Deploy increased tactical cash/bond overlays under macro stress |
| Commodities | Neutral | Maintain light GLD allocations during volatility spikes; no full overweight |
| Crypto | Tactical Long Bias (Bitcoin) | Maintain tactical long Bitcoin exposure; monitor liquidity trends and ETF approvals |
| Float | Short Active (XXXX, XXXX) | Maintain shorts; dynamically manage squeeze risks via stops |
| Risk Management | Hedge Layer Active | Maintain tactical SPY put spreads and VIX call overlays under medium-to-high stress readings |
🧠 Insight: Strategic bias remains focused on digital transformation, financial resilience, selective defensive hedges across energy, real estate, and volatility protection layers.
| Stock | Duration | Thesis |
|---|---|---|
| 🟢 META | Strategic | AI capex leader; undervalued; strong narrative momentum via Llama and Reels AI monetization |
| 🟢 MSFT | Strategic | Cloud AI Copilot leadership; Azure scale; stable long-term AI secular growth |
| 🟢 C | Strategic | Banking deep value; tangible book value discount; strong earnings resilience |
| 🟢 GOOG | Strategic | Core ad/search franchise stabilizing; undervalued vs peers; AI cloud progress |
| 🟢 BN | Strategic | Global asset manager; deep NAV discount; infrastructure growth exposure |
| 🟢 BABA | Strategic | Break-up catalyst unlocking value; regulatory easing tailwind |
| 🟢 Z | Strategic | Benefiting from real estate stabilization; high-margin marketplace model |
| 🟢 TTE | Strategic | Balanced oil/renewables strategy; strong cash flow funding energy transition |
| 🟢 NU | Strategic | LatAm fintech leader; strong growth metrics; underpenetrated banking expansion |
| 🟢 WMT | Strategic | Retail sector resilience; consumer discretionary strength beating macro fears |
| 🟢 AMZN | Strategic | AWS stabilization; retail consumer strength improving visibility |
| 🟢 PFE | Strategic | Healthcare innovation bottoming; biotech cycle recovery signs appearing |
| 🟢 CRM | Strategic | Cloud SaaS margins expanding; strong enterprise stickiness |
| 🟢 COST | Strategic | Retail earnings strength; inflation defense outperforming expectations |
| 🟢 JNJ | Strategic | Healthcare cash flow compounding; biotech ecosystem strengthening |
| 🔴 NVDA | Tactical | AI hype extreme; P/E>80x; RSI overbought; narrative peak forming |
| 🔴 TSLA | Tactical | Margin compression risks; EV competition intensifying |
| 🔴 ARM | Tactical | Post-IPO hype fading; insider unlock risk approaching |
| 🔴 SNAP | Strategic | User growth plateaued; ad revenue weakening; AI content risks rising |
| 🔴 AFRM | Tactical | BNPL fragility; high delinquencies; competitive pressures intensifying |
| 🔴 CVNA | Strategic | Debt-heavy business model; rally momentum unsustainable |
| 🔴 ENPH | Tactical | Solar sector slowdown; downgrade momentum building |
| 🔴 COIN | Strategic | Regulatory risks escalating; fee compression exposure rising |
| 🔴 RIVN | Strategic | Cash burn issues persisting; scaling challenges remain severe |
| 🔴 SNOW | Strategic | Cloud SaaS growth decelerating; valuation premiums unwinding |
| 🔴 PLTR | Tactical | Valuation extreme vs FMV; Defense AI cluster tailwind moderating |
| 🔴 PYPL | Tactical | Fintech competition pressure; margin compression; BNPL risks |
| 🔴 UPST | Tactical | AI lending model deterioration; credit cycle pressure intensifying |
| 🔴 LCID | Tactical | Luxury EV competition intensifying; production scaling risks remain |
| 🔴 HOOD | Strategic | Trading volumes weak; regulatory headwinds threatening business model |
🧠 Insight: Alpha Poker Strategy dynamically balances tactical dislocation plays and strategic secular growth or decay opportunities across AI, fintech, energy transition, crypto, healthcare, and consumer discretionary sectors — driven by multi-layered conviction analysis and evolving macro narratives.
Pula.AI's early track record places it alongside some of the most respected investors globally. While still early in the journey, the focus remains on sustainable outperformance through self-improving intelligence.
🧠 Insight: Pula.AI's first 6+ years show encouraging results. The focus remains on building a lasting track record through disciplined innovation and thoughtful risk management.